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Sunday, July 1, 2012

Assad: The Hot Potato

Diplomatic dingbats discussing the deplorable dictator Bashar al Assad on Friday June 29th and Saturday the 30th can not come to agreement on the disposition of the current Syrian leadership. The talks on Saturday in Geneva yielded nothing. Observers in the meeting said that it was the death of Kofi Annan's 6 point peace plain. One thing that the group did agree upon was the omission of the words whose participation would jeopardize stability and reconciliation” this was a reference to Assad in the 6 point plain and the western allies agreed  to this, unbelievable. 

Friday President Assad acknowledged on Sana Syria's state run TV that his country is in a “state of war”, it does not take an ophthalmologist to see that. The Syrian situation all hinges on Assad's behavior and actions but the diplomats continuously run from any agreement that calls for Assad to be neutralized.

This farcical exercise is going no were without Syrian input. You may as well be talking to a brick wall. And that is just what the Russians are complaining about. This is nothing more than liberal lip service aimed at world leaders just so they can say look we are trying to help the people of Syria but Syria won't cooperate.
Turkish convoy headed to Syria

Ammar Qurabi, a Syrian opposition leader with the exiled National Current for Change group, said, “The meeting in Geneva was a shock for the Syrian people; they were expecting an explicit call for Assad to step down.”
Qurabi speaking out about the proposal for a Syrian transitional government said. “We can’t say we would participate in a transition from Assad to Assad,” he said. “All this did was give the Syrian issue sleeping pills for six months, until the U.S. elections are over.” As a Syrian Mr. Qurabi knows that for a successful political change in Damascus to take place then all remnants of a Assad regime must be eradicated. This is not to say that all Baathist influence will be eliminated. Just like in Lybia the upper level officials and family members must be ousted or eliminated.
Turkish anti-aircraft missile emplacement on Syrian border

Friday several interesting statements were made by U.S. officials regarding Syria and surrounding countries. During the DoD press conference Secretary of Defense Leon Pannetta and General Martin Dempsey confirmed Turkish troops, tanks and anti-aircraft emplacements are massing on the Syrian border. Also revieled to us was the fact that “the United States and Israel have rescheduled a joint military exercise called Austere Challenge.” Israeli sources relieved that Saudi Arabian tanks and infantry entered Jordan and are massing on the Syrian border. The Saudis are their on the invitation of Jordan’s King Abdoulah.
Saudi forces taking up positions in Jordan

Saturday in Geneva Mrs. Clinton through out some hints at what she know about the role of western forces that are operating within the Syrian operational theater with this statement. But the stakes of inaction by the international community are just too high. If Syria spirals further into civil war, not only will more civilians die, not only will more refugees stream across the borders, but instability will most certainly spill into neighboring states.” Mrs. Clinton at this point is very cryptic but what she is alluding to is CIA/MI5 operations supporting the rebal/Free Syrian Army factions. The recent success of the forces opposing Assad have a great deal to do with the distribution of weapons, dissemination of aerial surveillance photographs and the recruitment of defectors. The CIA has also been instrumental in the formation of a satellite communications network linking opposition commanders in a strategic Information sharing system. Mrs. Clinton may also have confirmed the presence of the Saudi forces in Jordan that are poised to encircle Damascus and creating a safe zone in the suburbs.
Jordan's Tanks preparing for Syrian invasion

In a statement issued by the US State Department Friday an official identified as a senior State Department official spoke from St. Petersburg, Russia. The official paraphrased a meeting between Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov by saying it’s not simply about the suffering of the Syrian people and the danger that the country itself will unravel, but the Secretary made the point that there are real dangers for the wider region. We’ve seen the tensions between Syria and Turkey just this week. We’ve seen the impact on Lebanon. You could have a seriously destabilizing impact on Jordan. You could have an impact on Israel. So it’s really incumbent upon the Security Council members and regional states to exercise leadership and do what we can to help end the violence and get to a political transition. This confirms the sentiment of the Obama Administration that the Syrian people are secondary in this fight. The Americans may be supplying humanitarian aid but that is just cover for the real intentions. President Obama clearly is avoiding the Syrian conflict in public. At the same time Obama is instructing the CIA to steer all support toward the Islamist power structure of the Muslim Brotherhood. Clinton speaks about the impact of neighboring states and the danger of the conflict spreading. This has already happened. AQI al Qeada in Iraq has inserted itself in the fight and is taking advantage of the destabilization to spread its sectarian violence.
Turkish rocket launcher

With the statement “there are real dangers for the wider region” Clinton eludes to the WMDs that are under the control of Pro-Assad forces and the threat of bio/chem attacks on the population of Syria and the exportation of that terror threat. There is a real possibility of the poison agents finding their way into the hands of AQI, Hezbollah, Hamas and the radical Muslim Brotherhood. Syria has produced tuns of Mustard and VX gases as well as Anthrax, small quantities of these substances are devastating to densely populated arias Such as Tel Aviv or the subway system in NY. To make matters worse these agents are stored in bulk containers as well as being weaponized into artillery shells and the storage facilities are scattered throughout the country.
Israeli forces on Syrian border

One thing that is certain to happen in the Syrian conflict is that failed diplomatic attempts will continue to result in the death of more people, the destruction of the countries infrastructure and the expanding radical threat from Islamist groups like AQI. At the very least we must commend Kofi Annan for his continued efforts to resolve the situation through his 6 point plain and by confronting President Assad on his home turf. Clearly the diplomatic effort to curtail the violence has failed leaving neighboring countries to defend their borders and airspace or join the fight. The internal fight between pro and anti Assad factions will escalate to the point that one will collapse, most likely it will be the Assad regime but it may take all summer leaving a lawless vacuum waiting to be filled by various radical Islamist factions. The Jinn is out of the bottle and the longer it takes to cauterize the Syrian wounds the more blood will be spilled and the continued growth of terrorist organizations.

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