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Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Egypt: We Told You So

Conservative bloggers and annalists studding the Middle East predicted this a year ago when the Arab spring reared it's ugly head. The Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi is officially the victor in the 2012 Egyptian elections. It all started in 2008 during the Bush/Obama transition when the incoming Obama Administration ramped up the covert and overt activities in the Middle East known as “Democratization”. Was their a contingency for this in 08 when the US State Department was plying young Egyptians with money and technology at MEPI conferences. The Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) is a US State Department program that supports reform efforts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The program started in 2002 and the stated goals of the program were to strengthen civil society and the rule of law in MENA countries. The State Department sponsored young people from the MENA region specificity Egypt and it was quit obvious that the CIA used these youth conferences along with USAID for recruitment. MEPI conferences were openly promoting the empowerment of women and youth, improve and expand education, encourage economic reform and increase political participation. Behind the scenes MEPI/CIA/USAID were training the participants to be activists against the Mubarak government.

The Arab spring has come full circle in Egypt with the election of Mohamed Morsi, the democratic process has worked in Egypt just as MEPI was advocating. The people of Egypt have spoken and the voices that we will be hearing out of Cairo will be conflicting. To the Western world their will be a projection of moderation so not to alarm American and European politicians to the true Islamic objectives. Then the voice to the Islamic world that is meant to unify Muslims in a sectarian caliphate, meant to purify the Middle East and ultimately the world of infidels. On Sunday in Egypt millions from around the country and the world awaited the announcement of who will represent the Egyptian people. 

Morsi's speech on Sunday was repetitive and contradictory. His words were directed to the Western World but the opening act performed by Egyptian cleric Safwat Higazi were clearly directed to the radical element of the reinvented Islamic state. Higazi fired up the crowds by stating this. “The capital of the caliphate - the capital of the United States of the Arabs - will be Jerusalem, Allah willing." Further inflammatory statements aimed toward the radical Islamic population advocated giving up their lives by fighting the Jewish State. "Millions of martyrs march toward Jerusalem." and "Banish the sleep from the eyes of all Jews." Was this truly a wake up call to Israelis? NO! Their eyes have been open and and their ears have been acute since the Jewish state was created in 1948. Prior to taking the microphone Morsi renounced his Muslim Brotherhood membership and his affiliation to the Freedom and Justice party. During his Sunday speech he advocated  for a status-quo position by implying cooperation with Israel "we will preserve all national and international agreements." He also advocated on behalf of Egypt's minorities and "protect the rights of women and children." Morsi included praises to the military council, judiciary and police that had throne him in jail several times by saying "I must salute them because they have a role in the future."
Clearly President Morsi will be walking a line in his new role with the radicals that elected him on one side and the military ruling council on the other. This is the contradiction that the Egyptian people will come to realize, a presidential puppet and front man for the shadow government known as the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) pulling his strings. This has the potential of inflaming the Brotherhood that propelled Morsi to power. Sooner or later the Brothers will be looking for payback and like the Mafia the brotherhood will make him an offer he cannot refuse. The conflicting interests of the Brotherhood and SCAF will chafe at the new president and leave him impotent in the eyes of his constituents. On the other side if Morsi bows to the radical faction of the brotherhood's ideology he will become unacceptable to the Americans who hold the military purse strings that have empowered the SCAF for 4 generations and the generals will be forced to make a decision about the president.  

The untenable position that the incoming president will soon be experiencing will test his resolve as well as his political prowess within Egypt. He faces massive corruption and cronyism within the military that is designed to alienate the civilian population. Unless the entire military is dismantled and reconstructed the Egyptian people will never realize financial and civil equality, one of the corner stones of Morsi's revised platform. Wile on the campaign stump Morsi also pandered to the Salafis faction by throwing verbal bombs at Israel calling them “Killers” and “Vampires”. Morsi, telling the radicals in late April that if elected he will be a hard line Islamist, “This is the old, Islam is the solution platform,” Referring to Shariah law Morsi said in a television interview “It has been developed and crystallized so that God could bless society with it.” During his first rally the candidate spoke reinforcing his position by stating, “The Koran is our constitution, and Shariah is our guide!”

The ruling military council, which says it will hand over executive power by the end of June, eradicated the parliament dominated by the Brotherhood and giving itself the legislative power to control the new constitution and have a broad say in government policy. Rejecting this the Brotherhood denounced the SCAF publicly. At the same time SCAF de-legitimized the presidential office by stripping all powers that a commander in chief should have. Morsi must yield to the military the right to enforce or veto any legislative or budget proposals. The SCAF has also retained the right to block any attempt at instituting  Islamic sharia law and any references to it in the new constitution. As far as the security and policing powers Morsi will find himself powerless as the police force and the military remain autonomous and are only accountable to themselves. So not much has changed in Egypt, the year long presidential process has proven to be an exercise in futility. Even though the Obama zombies that pushed for the Arab Spring still have no contingency options in Egypt or any other MENA country the Egyptian SCAF did. The revolution is not over in Egypt Stay tuned.

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