ecurity Information Publicly Disseminated

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Soldiers Bolt in Syrian Revolt

Syrian soldiers carrying fallen comrades

The army and security forces are not dropping there guns and running into Turkey as previously reported but are turning there rifles in the direction of Damascus. The Dictator Basher al Assad has lost control over portions of his military. Thousands of Sunni Muslim soldiers that were called up from the Golan Heights to reinforce the fighting in the Syrian north are refusing to fire on the civilian populations. Other soldiers that have defected the ranks earlier and went into Turkey are regrouping and recruiting for an offencive against forces still loyal to Assad. The confederate force of Sunnis numbers in the thousands some estimates are between 25 and 30 thousand.

Meanwhile in Istanbul exiled Syrian opposition leaders continue to talk turkey with anyone who will listen. They have formed the “Syrian National Council” (SNC) in an attempt to bolster support from the UN EU and the GCC however the support coming from the UN has been nothing more than lip service. Proposals offered to the security council by the the US in conjunction with other countries have been blocked by Russia and China, with abstentions from Brazil, India, South Africa, and Lebanon.

With this new political movement afoot designed to replace Assad with a interim government of Syrian ex-patriots. The revolting Syrian forces now have further incentive to turn against their Alawite commanders and form a opposition guerrilla force strong enough to topple Assad. The SNC has received covert funding from Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US as well as logistical support from the Lebanese political movement “March 14”. Covert sources inside Lebanon have revealed an ongoing operation to smuggle guns and ammunition to the newly formed Syrian opposition. The smuggling operation was uncovered recently by Lebanese army investigators that intercepted a truckload of weapons destine for the revolting guerrilla forces in the Syrian city of Baniyas. The source of the weapons is unclear but speculations are that the guns came from an Iranian shipment. The guns bound for Syrian security forces at the port of Lattakia were interdicted by the Turkish Navy.

With Damascus being propped up internationally by Russia and China by way of cash and weapons Assad has some level of reassurance that he will not be thrown to the SNC wolves barking at his door from Istanbul. Syria’s long time friend Iran seams be be giving Assad unwavering support as well. This was recently demonstrated by the assassination plot and embassy bombings on the Saudi ambassador to the US and Israeli embassy in Brazil. The covert bombings and assassination attempts will continue from Tehran as retaliation for intercepted weapons, ammunition and supplies going to Syria from Iran. Tehran is also looking to expand their sphere of influence over the aria and targeting the west with terrorist plots is in there twisted unsophisticated minds a show of force against the Grate Satan.

The deserting soldiers are forming up in smaller groups in several areas on the outskirts of Homs, Rastan and Baniyas. It is unclear if the troops have secure communications to form a cohesive force necessary for a large scale attack. So far the hit and run attacks on government forces have been sporadic and uncoordinated. These attacks how ever small have demonstrated to Assad loyalists that further Sunni regulars will be bolting from there ranks. The seeds of civil war in this respect have been planted and with Political support coming from the SNC in Istanbul and the weapons, ammunition and financial support coming from The Sadie's GIP, the American CIA and the Israeli Mossed the opposition have a good chance of succeeding.

Syrian Army defectors have crossed into Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan along with thousands of refugees that have been forced from there homes by the troops loyal to Assad. Some of the Junior officers that have defected recounted that more of the army rank and file will be bolting as soon as a good opportunity presents itself. According to one Lieutenant  when an engagement takes place the army privates spearhead the movement followed by the security forces and if the privates refuse to shoot when ordered by superiors, the security forces shoot the army privates in the back.

For a successful opposition outcome to a Syrian Civil War the soldiers of the “Free Officers Movement” and the “Free Syrian Army” movement must unify and start consolidating their forces that are scattered throughout the multi-nation aria. This can be achieved by utilizing the  secure communications structure of the Turks and directed out of a command and control center previously set up by the Turkish military to direct air and ground assets.The city of Aleppo will be key in the success of the movement. Capturing the rail lines linking the Turkish city of Kilis with the Syrian cities of Aleppo,Hama, Homs and Damascus this line bisects the entire country and is key in the transportation of goods and people on the north south axis of the country. All other rail lines intersect the north south line linking the Mediterranean city of Lattakia and the country Lebanon with all points to the east including Iraq. American and Turkish Navel assets could be employed for the blockade of Syrian ports isolating the country from the Mediterranean, of course cooperation from the Lebanese and Israelis will be helpful but not critical. With outside support the opposition movement will have an excellent chance of ejecting the Assad regime from power. Heavy diplomatic negotiations will be necessary to hold off the Russians and Chinese as Syria and Iran are premium military customers. China and Russia presently operate logistical centers in the respective embassies giving the Syrian government logistical advise on sanction evasion, Internet propaganda, media control and weapons smuggling.
Dead Iraqi Kurds

Assad may soon feel boxed in with the mounting international pressure of sanctions that are having an effect on the countries ability to function. In such a situation there is no telling what moves he may next. The scorched earth policy that has been employed in the cities of Homs and Huma have strengthened the resolve of the population rather than subordinate them. The home invasions conducted by the security forces across the country killing entire families in the house-to-house slaughter have had a repulsive effect on the military. The military continues to brake ranks and defect to the opposition weakening the dictators grip over the population. Hundreds of thousands of people have been detained, tortured and subsequently disappeared. So what is next in the Assad bag of tricks. The dictator just may think the unthinkable and brake out the bio/chem weapons and perpetrate a crime against humanity that the world has not witnessed since Saddam Hussein gassed the Iraqi Kurdish people in 1988 killing 5000 at one time.

Syria's population is 90% Muslim--74% Sunni, and 16% other Muslim groups, including the Alawi, Shi'a, and Druze--and 10% Christian. There also is a tiny Syrian Jewish community. The Syrian armed forces are a direct reflection of the population demographics with the Sunnis making up the bulk of the troops and the Alawiats are mostly in upper level command positions. There is quite a bit of animosity between the Sunnis and Alawits thus leaving the potential for large numbers of bolting troops, President Bashar al Assad is Alawi.

Of course the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will not sit back and watch the Syrian events play out on TV but he will instruct is puppy Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to get more actively involved in the situation. The neanderthals in Tehran will see the civil war along sectarian lines and support the Alwai minority as the Alawi and the Shi’a are closely aliened in the mixed-up Muslim mind. To put it in to a western perspective the Sunni are to the Alawi/Shi’a like the Catholics are to the Protestants in Northern Ireland.

The countries demographics do not work in favor of Assad and this civil war will come down to a sectarian conflict. The wild cards in the conflict will be the screwballs in Hamas and Hezbollah along with Lebanese fringe groups that may join Assad or turn against Israel. There is question that Syria is a powder keg but the fuse has been lit. The world seems to have other things on the burner right now with the drug cartels in Mexico reeking havoc in the Americas to the European dept crises. There is obviously the preoccupation of the president in the US with administration malfeasance regarding the Fast and Furious operation, the Solyndra pay for play scandal and the presidential legitimacy issue with Obamas birth certificate. One thing is for sure Syria is a giant shit sandwich and the entire Middle East is at the lunch counter.

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