The
situation in Syria is no longer an Issue between Bashar al Assad and
the people of Syria but A Sunni-Shiite
gang fight with regional implications. This fight in Syria has taken
a new turn. The Syrian civil uprisings that ballooned into government
protests has escalated into a civil war and will not be like the
Crips and the Bloods trading bullets in Compton but a battle of
religious zealots bent on total cleansing of the opposition. No cops
or restrictions to hinder the carnage and no UN peace keepers to
document atrocities, the only government intervention will be that of
Iran and Syria backing the Shiite side and the US, UK and the Saudis
backing the Sunnis via proxy.
The
Americans have been supplying weapons through the countries of Saudi
Arabia and Qatar, the Iranians have been supplying light and heavy
weapons purchased from Russia to the al-Assad government since the
conflict started. Iran just this week (8/28/12) admitted publicly
that fighters have been dispatched to Syria to fight on behalf of
Bashar al-Assad's forces. Gen. Salar Abnoush, commander of the IRGC’s
Saheb al-Amr unit, spoke to a group of army volunteers that Iran is
currently sending commanders and foot soldiers from its elite corps
to fight in “every aspect of the war in Syria, military and
cultural.” This was the first time that a Iranian government
official admitted to Iran’s military involvement in the Syrian
conflict, all claims of Iran's intervention have been denied up until
this point.
US
Sectary of State Hillary Clinton repeatedly denies supplying weapons
to the anti-government fighters, however she will admit to
“humanitarian assistance”. The assistance is now widely known to
be state of the art communications equipment, night vision equipment
and clandestine surveillance through drown and satellite
intelligence. There is no reason NOT
to believe that special forces or spies??? from many countries are
sprinkled throughout the region. Countries with any interest in the
MANA region will include the US, UK, Israel, France, Jordan, Turkey,
Russia, China, Venezuela, Iran and the countries of the Gulf
Cooperation Council. All these countries have a financial and
strategic interest in the aria weather it is oil and gas, domestic
security or the suppression of terror franchises like Hamas,
Hezbollah or al-Qaida. Clinton is pushing for direct military
intervention. First she is advocating a no-fly zone in the north
bordering Turkey. Second is boots on the ground to secure the
bio/chem weapons. In the event that al Assad's WMDs are employed by
government forces, in danger of being compromised by an outside force
like al-Qaida or the stockpiles moved for any reason all security
council members agree that intervention is necessary. Right now with
the Russians having a force in place it would seam that they would be
the most likely force to take control of the weapons.
As
far as the no-fly zone strategy Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta
said that while such a step is under study, it is “not on the front
burner.” Well Mr Panetta needs to have a conversation with his
french counterpart Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian as he seams to
be real keen on the idea. The problem with restricting Syria's
airspace is that several steps will have to come into play. First a
strike on the air defenses will be necessary, second a strike on the
Syrian airfields crippling the air force's capability to put planes
in the air. Third, one and two are acts of war and the president will
need congressional approval for a operation that invades a countries
sovereign territory. If the congress gives consent then it is a 100%
certainty that Iran will retaliate against any American assets in the
region as well as Israel. The Russians don't think it is a real swift
idea either. Sergei Lavrov the Russian Foreign Minister stated that
any action like a no-fly zone in Syria is unacceptable to his country
"This will be a violation of sovereignty if it included Syrian
territory," Lavrov implying that the implementation of such a
unilateral action would violate international law. As far as the
bio/chem weapons are concerned the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister
Gennady Gatilov said that his government was working closely with
Damascus to ensure that its WMD's remains under firm control. Gatilov
reports that he has received guarantees that the stockpiles will not
be used or relocated.
Since
the Russians and Chinese refuse to cast a vote in favor of any
military intervention in Syria the UN security council has their
hands tied. Since any UN sanctioned military force is not possible
due to the two decenters, than why not a proxy war? Seams like a good
idea, right! Islamic extremists from all over the expansive
AFPAC/MENA aria are flocking to Syria to take up arms against their
reviled Muslim rivals. The hatred between the Sunnis and Shiites gos
back to 680
A.D. When Hussein (a Shiite), found himself surrounded by a larger
Ummayad force (Sunnis) at Karbala, in present day Iraq. With only a
handful of supporters to defend him, Hussein and 72 of his men were
captured and beheaded, and their women taken captive. The battle was
the defining moment in the split between Sunnis and Shiites. These
folks really know how to hold a grudge!
Iran is 90% Shia and has 15 thousand troops on root to the fight, the
Syrian leadership is predominately Alawite a Shia offshoot and the
Syrian Sunni solders are still going AWOL. The unified countries of
the security council decided to exploit the rift between the two
sides and give them the opportunity and the guns to wipe each other
out on the Syrian field of battle.
This
strategy has been done before, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan
in 1979 with the aim to reinforce the communist government structure
that had been set up by an Afghan general who was killed in a coup
the previous year. Radical Islamic fighters struck out against the
invading Soviets and bogged down the red army for years. The CIA
looking to take advantage of the situation started to funnel money
and weapons into the hands of the Afghan resistance fighters known as
the Mujaheddin.
The
CIA working through the Pakistani government supplied modern weapons
like American Stinger missiles, Chines AK-47 rifles, grenade
launchers and anti-tank weapons. The Mujaheddin morphed into the
Taliban and Osama Bin Leiden’s al-Qaida. The CIA achieved their
goal of forcing the soviet Union into a financially week position
through the war. The Soviet/Afghan war was a leading contributor to
the fall of the Soviet Union. How ever indirectly the CIA also
contributed to the growth and propagation of modern terrorism and the
ascension of Osama Bin Leiden as it's titular commander.
The
proxy war effort that is being organized in Syria is a very dangerous
situation. At some point their must be an intervention by a nation
state that is capable of disposing of the WMD hazard that was created
by the Syrian government. If at any point these weapons become
accessible to the radical Islamic extremists it is anybody’s guess
where they will end up being used, and they will be used.
With
Iran increasing their military presents in Syria things will escalate
and the death toll will rise sharply. Even though 200 thousand
Syrians have fled the country millions remain and the radical zealots
mixing among the population will directly and indirectly involve the
average citizen in this gang fight creating a massive amount of
collateral death and destruction.
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